Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Stagnating sales expected to increase
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of bacon and lunch meat, at current prices, 2011-21
- Slower DPI growth could to lead to less dining out
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- Figure 2: Disposable Personal Income change from previous period, August 2014-July 2016
- Consumers seek lower-sodium options
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- Figure 3: Interest in low-sodium options, by generation, July 2016
- The opportunities
- Quality proves key
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- Figure 4: Important attributes, July 2016
- Diverse flavors appeal
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- Figure 5: Increasing purchase, July 2016
- Price impacting Hispanic lunch meat choice
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- Figure 6: Opinions of lunch meat, by Hispanic origin, July 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Category sales to jump in latter half of decade
- Deli-counter lunch meat leveraging fresh appeal
- Less dining out could impact category
- Brown-bagging lunch may boost meats
Market Size and Forecast
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- Historic and projected sales performance
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of bacon and lunch meat, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of market, at current prices, 2011-21
Market Breakdown
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- Deli-counter lunch meat to pace the category
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- Figure 9: Sales of bacon and lunch meat, by segment, 2011-21
- Figure 10: Sales of bacon and lunch meat, by segment, 2011-21
- Slow sales for bacon should be short-lived
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated bacon, at current prices, 2011-21
- Refrigerated non-sliced lunch meat sales to slow
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated non-sliced lunch meat, at current prices, 2011-21
- Refrigerated sliced lunch meat largely stagnant
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- Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated sliced lunch meat, at current prices, 2011-21
- Shelf-stable lunch meat to grow but slowly
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- Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable lunch meats, at current prices, 2011-21
- Deli-counter lunch meat leveraging fresh appeal
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- Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of deli-counter lunch meat, at current prices, 2011-21
- Sales growth consistent among retail channels
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- Figure 16: Total US retail sales of bacon and lunch meat, by channel, at current prices, 2011-16
- Figure 17: Total US retail sales of bacon and lunch meat, by channel, at current prices, 2011-16
Market Perspective
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- Lower prices across the grocery aisles
- Lower DPI likely to lead to less dining out
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- Figure 18: Disposable Personal Income change from previous period, August 2014-July 2016
- Snacking culture eats into lunch meat usage
Market Factors
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- Taking lunch should boost category
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- Figure 19: Typical lunch, July 2016
- Youth movement could lead to more demand
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- Figure 20: US population by generation, 2010-20
- Figure 21: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
- Looking for healthier lunch meat options
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- Figure 22: Interest in low-sodium options, by generation, July 2016
- Hispanics more likely to use lunch meat and bacon
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- Figure 23: US population by race and Hispanic origin, 2009, 2014, and 2019
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Sales drops for leading brands
- Bacon on track to eclipse $5 billion mark by 2020
- Slowing lunch meat sales
- Breaking free
Brand Sales of Bacon and Lunch Meat
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- Kraft dominates market share, though leading brands see sales drops
- Brand sales of bacon and lunch meat
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- Figure 24: MULO sales of bacon and lunch meat, by leading companies, 52-weeks ending May 16, 2015
- Figure 25: Manufacturer sales of bacon and lunch meat, 2015-16
- Private-label options not resonating
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- Figure 26: US introductions of processed meats, branded versus private label, 2011-16
What’s Working?
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- Better days for bacon
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- Figure 27: Tyson Refrigerated Processed Meats' Bacon
- Figure 28: Smithfield Foods' Bacon
- Figure 29: Bacon as a component of new products
What’s Struggling?
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- Lunch meat sales stagnate
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- Figure 30: Kraft Foods's Oscar Mayer
- Figure 31: New processed meat introductions, branded versus private label, 2011-16
What’s Next?
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- Free market
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- Figure 32: Lunch meat options bearing free-from claims
- Figure 33: Processed meat launches by claim category, 2011-15
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Expanding lunch meat usage
- Fresh bacon lags packaged options
- Parents notably more interested in gluten-free lunch meat/bacon
- Flavor trumps healthy attributes
- Millennials seek more options to use lunch meat
- Hispanics less likely to skip lunch
Usage of Lunch Meat
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- Lunch meat typically on a sandwich
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- Figure 34: Usage of lunch meat, July 2016
- Consumption of lunch meat declines with age
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- Figure 35: Usage of lunch meat, by generations, July 2016
- Expanding lunch meats’ usage options
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- Figure 36: Usage of lunch meat, by household income, July 2016
- Larger households turn to convenience of lunch meat
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- Figure 37: Usage of lunch meat, by presence of children in household, July 2016
- Hispanics using lunch meat in sandwiches, salads
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- Figure 38: Usage of lunch meat, by Hispanic origin, July 2016
Usage of Bacon
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- Fresh bacon usage lags other category segments
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- Figure 39: Usage of bacon, July 2016
- Younger generations notably more likely to use bacon
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- Figure 40: Usage of bacon, by generation, July 2016
- Fresh options resonate strongly with Hispanics
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- Figure 41: Usage of bacon, by Hispanic origin, July 2016
Important Attributes
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- Quality impacts purchase nearly as much as health
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- Figure 42: Important attributes, July 2016
- Strongest interest in gluten-free among parents
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- Figure 43: Important attributes, July 2016
- Low-sodium lunch meats have room to grow sales
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- Figure 44: Important attributes of prepackaged/deli lunch meat, by race, July 2016
- Low-sodium, low-fat bacon options resonate
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- Figure 45: Important attributes of bacon (prepackaged or freshly sliced), by generation, July 2016
Purchase Interest
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- Diverse flavors may lure adventurous consumers
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- Figure 46: Increasing purchase, July 2016
- Allergen-free options resonate with Millennials
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- Figure 47: Increasing purchase, by generations, July 2016
- Uniquely flavored bacons have widespread appeal
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- Figure 48: Increasing purchase, by household income, July 2016
Opinions of Lunch Meat
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- Fresh perception of key importance to lunch meat shoppers
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- Figure 49: Opinions of lunch meat, July 2016
- Millennials seeking more possibilities with lunch meat
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- Figure 50: Opinions of lunch meat, by generation, July 2016
- Price could be guiding Hispanic lunch meat choice
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- Figure 51: Opinions of lunch meat, by Hispanic origin, July 2016
Opinions of Bacon
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- Consumer concern about preparing bacon
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- Figure 52: Opinions of bacon, July 2016
- Packaging could guide consumer usage as snacks
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- Figure 53: Opinions of bacon, by generation, July 2016
- Value a key motivator
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- Figure 54: Opinions of bacon, by household income, July 2016
- Origin of particular importance to parents
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- Figure 55: Opinions of bacon, by parental status by gender with children in household, July 2016
- Hispanics may accept diverse applications for bacon
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- Figure 56: Opinions of bacon, by Hispanic origin, July 2016
Typical Lunch
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- Leftovers lead typical lunch, sandwiches a close second
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- Figure 57: Typical lunch, July 2016
- Millennials more likely to dine out for lunch
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- Figure 58: Typical lunch, by generation, July 2016
- Lower-income consumers more likely to skip lunch
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- Figure 59: Typical lunch, by household income, July 2016
- Potential for salad-ready cuts
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- Figure 60: Typical lunch, by parental status, by gender, July 2016
- Hispanics less likely to skip lunch
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- Figure 61: Typical lunch, by Hispanic origin, July 2016
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 62: Total US sales and forecast of bacon and lunch meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of bacon and lunch meat, by segment at current prices, 2014 and 2016
- Figure 64: Total US retail sales of bacon and lunch meat, by channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
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- Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated bacon, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated non-sliced lunch meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated sliced lunch meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable lunch meats, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of deli-counter lunch meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 70: US supermarket sales of bacon and lunch meat, at current prices, 2011-16
- Figure 71: US sales of bacon and lunch meat through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 72: MULO sales of refrigerated bacon, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- Figure 73: MULO sales of refrigerated non-sliced lunch meat, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
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- Figure 74: MULO sales of refrigerated sliced lunch meat, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- Figure 75: MULO sales of shelf stable lunch meats, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
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Correspondence Analysis – Bacon and Lunch Meat – October 2016
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- Methodology
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- Figure 76: Usage of lunch meat, hot dogs, sausage, and bacon and lunch meat, July 2016
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